CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-09T02:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33873/-1
CME Note: Bright fast halo CME associated with the X1.8 class flare from AR 3848 (N13W08) and a significant eruption marked by an EUV wave, a large area of deep dimming and bright post-eruptive arcades. Associated with this CME there was also a initially slowly developing eruption of a very large filament spanning from N20W15 to N15W55 to the northeast of the Active Region 3848 which started prior to the X flare (~2024-10-08T22:19Z).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-10T14:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.67
Dst min. in nT: -335
Dst min. time: 2024-10-11T01:00Z
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-10T15:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 9.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note:
predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-10-10T15:00Z Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90% Max Kp Range: 6-9Lead Time: 12.23 hour(s)
Difference: -0.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2024-10-10T02:32Z
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